January 26, 2011 CNNMoney Headline: “New home sales jump to 8-month high“. Sound like great news - right? To put this in perspective, be sure to see the easy-to-read detailed analysis and charts in “New Home Sales increase in December” posted at Calculated Risk. Good stuff.
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The S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released today with the three month moving average available through November 2010. The most recent numbers available for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area have been graphed based on Case-Shiller price tiers.
If the “typical” family moves every five to seven years, it’s clear there is more pain on the horizon for sellers and potential opportunity for new buyers.
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Amidst the negative news in banking and real estate, Mr. David Ellison appeared on the MarketWrap with Moe Ansari radio program January 13, 2011 with an overall positive outlook on banking and real estate. The interview starts 22 minutes into the program and lasts for about 12 minutes.  Many arguments can be made for and against this thesis and there are undoubtedly visible and unforeseen risks in this outlook. Listen and decide for yourself.
Kiplinger clarifies the estate tax in this article and warns not to make long-term plans, because these rules expire in 2012!
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The Phoenix Business Journal brings to light the Allied Van Lines 43rd Annual Magnet States report that Arizona is number five for relocation, with a net positive 370 moves from January through November in 2010. While this is a small number when compared to the number of properties for sale; it is positive – in that people moving here need housing, be they owners or renters.  See the full article here.
While there are many factors that can affect real estate prices, some believe we still have more downside. In the following article, Cullen Roche provides rational reasoning for this perspective.
http://pragcap.com/is-housing-due-to-revert-to-the-mean-price
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